Political Predictions
There is so much talk about Democrats taking over Congress that I am starting to experience a 2004 flashback. Remember when all those exit polls were broadcast early in the day on Election Day and ALL of them said John Kerry was our next president?
Certainly, the war in Iraq and the recent GOP political scandals have changed the momentum of some of the congressional races, but when those voters in Tennessee, Virginia, Pennsylvania and other key states go to the polls, will any of those recent developments make them change their vote from a Republican to a Democrat? More importantly, will it spur them to vote against an incumbent when incumbents have notoriously high re-election rates?
I'd like to know what the rest of you think. Who do you think will control the House and Senate after the November 7th elections?
My answer will be in the first comment.
Certainly, the war in Iraq and the recent GOP political scandals have changed the momentum of some of the congressional races, but when those voters in Tennessee, Virginia, Pennsylvania and other key states go to the polls, will any of those recent developments make them change their vote from a Republican to a Democrat? More importantly, will it spur them to vote against an incumbent when incumbents have notoriously high re-election rates?
I'd like to know what the rest of you think. Who do you think will control the House and Senate after the November 7th elections?
My answer will be in the first comment.
posted by cvo @ 4:30 PM
7 Comments:
At 4:48 PM,
cvo said…
While I will acknowledge the tide of anger that is rising against the Republican party on a national level, I don't think it will translate into an upheaval in Congress on a race-by-race basis. In the past, people who tell pollsters that they are disgusted with Congress as an overall institution have repeatedly voted for their incumbent Representative or Senator anyway.
But that is not the only reason why I believe the Republicans will still be in control of both the House and the Senate after November 7.
There have been so many efforts made to suppress poor and minority voters' rights in key states like Florida, Ohio and Arizona not to mention the repeated malfunctions or questionable results from elections where most of the votes are tallied by computer that I don't think Democrats will ever win another significant national race on a large scale. I'm not suggesting that every election can be rigged, but I am suggesting that there are tactics that can be carried out to swing a close election one way or the other. The Democrats did it in Illinois in 1960 and the Republicans did it in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004.
I believe the Democrats will gain 4 or 5 seats in the Senate and maybe 12 or 13 seats in the House, but will once again come up short of being the majority party in Congress, leaving us with at least 2 more years of Republicans controlling the White House and the Capitol.
At 7:42 PM,
R said…
"I don't think Democrats will ever win another significant national race on a large scale" - wow that is pretty pessimistic. You are saying they have become the 21st century version of the Whigs.
At 8:40 PM,
R said…
I guess my comment does not address your question. Unlike you, I wasn't too surprised in 2000 and 2004; both of those elections seemed too close to call, all the way up to the last minute. The closeness of those elections should have given the Republicans some sense that things could go the other way if they alienated the middle, but it seems that they chose to ignore this inconvenient fact.
This time around, it seems obvious even to you that Democrats will make significant gains, despite the conspiracy you hint that you believe will bring them up short. The most telling statistic I've seen is the one that has independents 2 to 1 for the Democrats. If that is real, and they don't do better than you predict, then I guess I do agree that they have become the 21st century Whigs.
My main hope for this election is that whoever comes out on top will bring about some rules changes that reduce the leadership's ability to skew the outcomes of Congressional proceedings. If the Democrats do take control, and they instead view a win as "payback time," they will alienate most of the public even more.
At 2:01 AM,
jmeriwether said…
One of the disadvantages of moving so frequently is that I don't get a good feel for the local political situation before I have to pack up house again. In Georgia I voted a straight Democratic ticket and helped replace a perfectly sane Replican man in a wheelchair with that moron whose name now escapes me. (I beg for forgiveness. Curtis will be able to fill in the names for me, I'm sure. Sleep deprivation is taking its toll on my brain.) In Mississippi I just voted for the presidential race and some amendments and my vote was an inconsiquential blue drop in a red sea. Now that we're overseas I'm taking a break. I think the absentee ballots haven't even arrived yet anyway. Since there weren't any elections that I paid attention to while I was in Kansas I suppose I'm still registered in Mississippi. Yikes. I need to figure out how/if I can get registered in state that makes more sense for me before the next presidentail race. Sorry about not answering the question. I'm not making any predictions.
At 3:26 PM,
Edith said…
There was an article that appeared on IHT.com October 27th addressing many of the trials of absentee voting. I just received and returned my absentee ballot today. Hopefully, it's going to make the Nov. 7th deadline.
Voting in Vermont when I was present was enough of an issue that I almost filed a formal complaint with the Secretary of State's office. My liberal, activist, and equally disgusted neighbors informed me that the employee that gave me all the problems has been replaced. Matters have proceeded rather smoothly with her gone. It does highlight how one person can thwart hundreds of votes though. If I hadn't worked in politics I wouldn't have known all the many methods I employed to force the previous employee's hand. Not least of which was being able to take literally hours off work.
There's nothing the very election-organized Republicans count on more than "liberal" voter exhaustion. It often gives them a 30% lead in close elections. If it rains too, it's over. I was never involved in an election in four years that leaned in the Democrats' favor with comparable circumstances. Perhaps a topic for a Today show episode? Especially with so many Americans oversees, one would be hard pressed to accuse the show of unfair bias.
At 5:30 PM,
R said…
So what do I win for getting this right?
At 1:35 PM,
cvo said…
You get to live in a representative democracy where your vote actually counts for something.
I don't want to seem stubborn, and while I will admit Russell's prediction of the RESULTS was right and mine was wrong, I still think the factors that I though would lead to defeat for the Democrats were still in play on Election Day, but fortunately there was enough backlash and turnout to overcome the obstacles.
Examples:
In Katherine Harris' old district, election officials have awarded a House seat to the Republican candidate who won by 369 votes despite the fact that officials admit 18,000 votes cast on electronic voting machines essentially never counted because neither candidate was chosen according to the machine.
In Virginia, the FBI is looking into claims that registered Democrats received automated messages on their answering machines the day before Election Day, saying they were registered in 2 states or some other fabrication, and therefore, would not be allowed to vote in Virginia on Election Day or face criminal charges. Democrat Jim Webb ended up winning a tight race by 7,200 votes but who knows how many people were intimidated by those calls.
In Maryland, homeless men were trucked in from big cities like Philadelphia to pass out flyers to potential voters saying three prominent Democrats endorsed the Republican candidate for governor. None of those Democrats actually endorsed that candidate.
Across the country, Democrats were beseiged by robo-calls from an automated service claiming to be supporters of certain Democratic candidates in their areas but were actually Republican-sponsored calls that continued to bombard the Democrats for days on end, so the Democrats would get annoyed and NOT vote for that candidate. I actually received a series of those calls, and it almost had the same effect on me. The calls were paid for by the Republican National Congressional Committee.
The shenanigans I predicted occurred, but fortunately there were enough people who came out of their fog of the last 6 years, and made some sensible choices.
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